The Bitcoin Narrative Needs to Shift

Credit: Foretoken Media 2024

Bitcoin milestones beguile outcomes purported by enthusiasts

Bitcoin has a messaging problem.

Looking at major newsworthy events of the world's largest crypto over the last few years it appears the messaging from bitcoin's paracletes has served their goals very poorly.

Preceding halvings, network adoptions, and external economic events, have always been hyped by maxis (bitcoin 'maximalist' proponents) as revolutionizing finance, trade, and global economics.

To be sure, bitcoin is indeed a transformational economic commodity with unrivaled potential to revolutionize global finance – just not yet.

The more that bitcoin's potential is ballyhooed by its expounders on the basis of singular events and immediate crises, the less effective its potential is communicated to a public that doesn't understand its value or purpose.

And the halving this week is no different.

Historical examples

Time and again, the public has been bombarded with immense enthusiasm from bitcoin maxis and enthusiasts for this or that new thing happening on the network or some external factor, such as a Fed decision.

Historically, the price has not sustained a price surge over time as a direct result of concurrent newsworthy events. Yet, this is how bitcoin is being sold to an uninitiated public that is widely skeptical of this financial phenomenon.

Over and over supporters assure the public of an impending rise in price and its ability to immediately shift the global economic calculus on the coat tails of [insert event or crisis here]. A network change or sudden economic crisis does not create a decentralized finance revolution.

Consider these examples:

• The last three halvings: Immediately after each of Bitcoin's last three halvings, the price has risen to an unsustainable 18 month high before collapsing.

• Crypto Winter: Supporter tied the price of bitcoin to the enthusiasm over NFTs, such as Bored Apes Yacht Club, in 2022. Yet the price of bitcoin dragged through the year's last three quarters.

• Ordinals adoption: While there was a rise in price following the adoption of Ordinals onto the Bitcoin network in early 2023 it was not sustained over the long run. Ordinals was far too nuanced with a complex array of factors, making it challenging to pinpoint a single bellwether for the price rise.

• Banking crises of 2023: With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and First Republic in March 2023 there was great hype that these downfalls would lead to a rise in the price and popularity of bitcoin. This simply did not happen; during Q2 2023 (immediately following the collapses) bitcoin shed 15.35%, from $30,468 to $25,792.

• Spot ETF approval: BTC rose ~$27,000 in the two months between the SEC's spot bitcoin ETF approval on January 10 and reaching a new zenith of ~$73,000 on March 13. At press time BTC is $63,271, a $10,000 loss in just 1 month, despite the fourth halving this week. The ETF price rise is due to the growing institutional acceptance of the digital currency with traditional finance and legislative bodies.

Meet the public where they are

Bitcoin's price is largely dependent on the market's knowledge that it is inherently deflationary, provably owned, and eternally separated from bureaucratic balderdash. But by and large the general public only sees bitcoin no more valuable than what institutional finance tells them its value is.

This cannot be dismissed by BTC promulgators.

Until there is full adoption (and there will be someday) bitcoiners are fighting an uphill battle of purporting a digital currency's worth based on fleeting events and benign, forgettable outcomes.

The narrative from bitcoiners needs to change so it meets the public where they are now. Especially if we are going to overcome the calumnies from detractors.

Bitcoin adoption is a long game

Bitcoin will transform global economics, but it is a long game that needs to be telegraphed as such to the uninitiated public.

Let's untie bitcoin's value from immediate crises and major events and shift the focus onto its future potential for positive economic transformation.